Friday, March 7, 2008

Mr. Balky, He's Back!

i amThere's a name I'm gonna throw out there, tell me if you've ever heard of this player. Randy Johnson. What. . .what was that? Oh you have heard of this guy. Very well then. Whether you are aware or not, he might be pitching in a stadium located near you this season; or he could be pitching for your fantasy team this season.

Randy, or the "Big Unit", has had some monster seasons. For example, the average stats from his 1999- 2002 campaigns are 257 IP, a 1.045 WHIP, 2.48 ERA, and the most impressive of them all, 354 k's per season. Could you imagine if you played fantasy baseball back then! Those numbers even make Johan jealous.

Now we are 7 years later, Johnson is 44 and coming off major back surgery. . . two surgeries actually. The first one was to repair a herniated disc, and the second one removed that same disc. Sounds like a guy you want, right? Don't worry I know it isn't.

Let's see where he's being taken to get an idea of what his value is. According to, his average draft position is 218, or an 18th round pick in a standard 12-team league. Therefore, you don't have to invest a lot to get him.

Now let's see what you can expect from Johnson if you do draft him. Over the past two years he's pitched 261 innings, and and struck out 244 batters. K's show if a pitcher is still "dominating" hitters, and its always a good sign to see an older pitcher maintain his k rate the way Randy has. I don't expect him to return to his former ways, but I do expect a sort of rebound season from him.

Now lets take a look on what one can expect in terms of numbers from Johnson. Based on this article: I'm not just gonna give you one median projection, but a set of worst to best with a percentage after them.

Waste of a Pick: He barely pitches do to injuries.
Projection: 0 IP, 0 etc.
Chance: 20%

Bad: Misses significant time to injuries, or is ineffective
Projection: 60 IP, 2 wins, 4.80 era, 1.42 whip, 48 Ks
Chance: 10%

Average: Pitches, but performs like an 18th round pick
Projection: 165 IP, 4.30 era, 1.34 whip, 140 Ks
Chance: 35%

Solid: Pitches well, gives you positive value for your pick
Projection: 170 IP, 3.82 era, 1.25 Whip, 155 Ks
Chance: 30%

Spectacular: Pitches like the Randy we once knew
Projection: 185 IP, 3.35 era, 1.16 whip, 175 Ks
Chance: 5%

So obviously there is a solid chance based on my projections that Randy Johnson will prove to be a valuable pick late in your draft.



P.S. If your wondering why it says posted on Friday when this is first coming up on Sunday is because Blogger posts the date when i first start writing the article, not when I publish it. Nothing I can do.

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