Sunday, November 4, 2007

Free Agency Strategy

Most people think of free agency as a way for high-powered teams to over-spend on mediocre players. Yes, it is that, but it also can be very beneficial, even to smaller teams if they play the market right. Throughout the offseason I'll post a number of free agency rules, right now I'll just start with my first. It is very simple; it follows the basic law of supply and demand.

It is, buy players from positions that are deep that particular year. If there are several good 3rd basemen available one year, a team most-likely will get a better deal pursuing one of them, rather than a pitcher in a thin market.

Which brings us to pitchers: THERE IS ALMOST ALWAYS A THIN FREE AGENT MARKET FOR PITCHERS. That is why you constantly see teams overpaying for free agnet pitchers, because there is never a deep class. Does Barry Zito, Jaret Wright, Jeff Suppan, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and many many more ring any bells?

Teams looking to spend wisely on the f/a market do not get pitchers that way. Drafting and raising is the only way to go.

As for hitters that is another story. In a deep class, there can be an abundance of steals. Frank Thomas and Aaron Rowand should set some good examples.

Obvioulsy there are always some bad deals made, although much less than with pitching.

So advice for your favorite teams, buy when the supply is high, and the demand is low.



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