The Baseball Aspect

An In-Depth Look Into the A's Rotation

2008-04-29T19:30:00.004-04:00

For A's fans coming into the 2008 season, there was not much optimism. After the trades of Swisher and Haren, the season was supposed to be sacrificed for the future. The few hopes for A's fans came from Rich Harden healthy enough to start the season (once again), Eric Chavez supposed good recovery and quick return, and Justin Duchscherer joining the rotation. If you told these same fans that Harden and Duchscherer would go on the DL early and Chavy would be nowhere near returning, (he's currently on the 60 day DL) they would be sure the team was struggling mightily.

However this is not the case as the A's sit at 17-10, giving them the best record in the AL. Their offense could be called at best "sufficient" since it has been around the league average in hitting and it not the reason for the team's success. Rather the A's dominance has come from their rather dominant pitching, which currently owns a league-best 3.14 era. So if the pitching has not come from Harden, Duchscherer, or projected "ace" Joe Blanton, (4.07 era thus far) who has came through?

Names I'll throw out now are Andrew Brown (15 IP 0.00 ERA) Santiago Casilla (13.1 IP 0.00 ERA) Dana Eveland (29 IP 2.48 ERA) Chad Gaudin (30 IP 3.00 ERA) and Greg Smith (25 IP 2.88 ERA). I will take a closer look at these five players in the upcoming days and determine if they are legitimate MLB pitchers or just "fakers" pretending to be for the month of April.

I'm not going to discuss these pitchers tonight, but rather the method I will be using to evaluate them. It was proven that pitchers have little control over balls in play, and only control strikeouts, walks, home runs, and to a lesser extent extra-basehits and flyball/groundball ratio. (for a nice, short paragraph explaining what I'm saying, click here) Keeping that in mind, to evaluate the pitchers I will only look at BB%, K%, HR/FB%, FB/GB%, and stats like FIP that are luck-independent pitching statistics by definition.

So maybe tomorrow or sometime in the next few days look forward to my analysis. Since a few of the pitchers are rookies (Smith and Eveland) and almost all have limited major league experience, minor league stats will be necessary

Lastly I should note that Harden, Duchscherer, Joey Devine, and Keith Foulke have a combined 1.70 ERA in 37.1 innings, which definitely factors into the 3.14 team ERA, although none pitched enough innings individually to be included. Also Blanton's 4.07 ERA was achieved over 48.2 IP, and his inning-eating ability has definitely helped the team. I was not taking a shot at him earlier, he just hasn't exceeded expectations.

Cheers!

Paul

Closer's Songs - What They Enter To

2008-04-27T14:51:00.007-04:00

Ever since Yankees closer Sparky Lyle entered games to "Pomp and Circumstance" most closers choose a song they enter games to. For Mariano Rivera and Billy Wagner it's "Enter Sandman", for Trevor Hoffman it's "Hells Bells", and for Eric Gagne it's "Welcome To the Jungle". Frankly, in my opinion, these songs suck.

If I were the closer for an MLB team I would enter into the aptly named "Closing Time" by Semisonic. It starts out slow and mysteriously enough to give fans the feeling of anticipation. Then you would burst out of the bullpen right as the edgy chorus begins. The scene would be perfect; perhaps even better with some sparks or fireworks or something else of the sort.

Lyrics to Closing Time can be found here.

Anyway I've given up my dream of becoming a professional baseball player, so my new dream is for a MLB closer to decide to make "Closing Time" their entering song after viewing my blog.

If anyone has a suggestion of a song they think would make a good closer song, or wants to share their favorite current closer's song, feel free to post it as a comment.

Cheers!

Paul

The Little Known Rule of Service Time

2008-04-25T18:07:00.007-04:00

I'm always amazed at how many people can enjoy baseball without knowing a rule as important as service time. The rule almost single-handedly is the reason baseball has parity without a salary cap. Compared to revenue sharing, the service time rule does a lot more for small-market teams to help them be competitive.

Service time basically allows a team to keep a player for 6 years before they can become a free-agent. Not only does the team get to keep the player, but they get to keep him for a low salary as well. For the first 3 years of non free agent eligibility, the team can pay the player the league minimum regardless of player performance. However after 3 years, the player is eligible for arbitration, a process started in 1973.

Arbitration is a process in which the player and the team both submit a proposed salary to an arbiter, who then decides which salary is more fair based on the relative salaries of other players with similar experience and statistics. Whew. That's a long sentence, re-read it if you have to. Salaries awarded in arbitration are usually very team favored, although Ryan Howard was awarded a ridiculous 10 mil when he beat the Phillies in arbitration this year. In 2006 Alfonso Soriano was awarded 10 mil, and this year K-Rod lost in arbitration but gets a cool 10 mil as well, he was pushing for 12.5 million. So far no one has broken the 10 million mark in arbitration, but obviously it’s bound to happen sometime soon though probably not in the next 2 years.

As you can see from the chart (which i got from Dave Studeman's article on arbitration at the Hardball Times) the average player receives a relatively low salary from arbitration, although like the Earth's temperature, the salaries are rapidly increasing.

Hanley Ramirez will enter arbitration this offseason, and if he gets awarded 10 million in the process, that's ridiculous for the Marlins considering that is half their whole team's salary! (its $ 21,811,500) The awardings in arbitration must be capped somewhere because any higher than 10 million and were talking free agent money. Give those small market teams a break.

After those 3 arbitration years, a player is finally ready to head into free-agency. If you think about it, a player has his salary artificially deflated for his first 6 years in the majors. After those 6 years, what player wouldn't let loose and just take the highest offer. People are always yelling, "Players are so greedy, why wouldn't they take a lower offer and stay with a team that's be so good to them!?!" The reason is they have worked their ass off for the past 6 years and now, finally, they can enjoy the fruits of their success. Doesn't sound so greedy when you think about it from that perspective does it?

The last thing I'm going to take about is long-term contracts before a player is free agent eligible. Why would a team do this when they can just have a nice low 1-year contract with the player. Signing them long-term is risky since, well most of these younger players can be unproven, and any player is always just one injury away from a derailed career. Then the team is stuck with that contract for the next 2-3-4-5-6 years, however long it is. The reason is for the team to be able to keep the player on a relatively low contract for the first one or two years of their free agent eligibility. So when the Rockies sign Troy Tulowitzki to a 6 year 31 mil contract, and you say "5 million a year for such a talented young player!" Understand that the Rockies are playing Tulowitzki more than they have to for the next 5 years, while saving themselves some cash during the first 2 years of his free agent eligibility while he's under contract.

That's it! I hope you now know more about the rules of MLB, maybe I'll make a few more posts like these. I did write one earlier on players to be named later if you missed it click on the link. The service time of every major leaguer can conveniently be found at Cot's Baseball Contracts.

Enjoy the season!

Cheers!

Paul

The Next Billy Beane

2008-04-12T15:41:00.005-04:00

Today I was watching the Mets-Brewers game and something seemingly insignificant caught my attention. The Brewers sent up Hernan Iribarren to the plate, it was his first major league at bat, and the first pitch Hernan sees he smacks up the middle for a single. Almost comically, Mets pitcher Carlos Muniz abruptly picked off poor Hernan Iribarren at first base. The announcers and everyone watching were all laughing "Haha, that sucks!" however I realized the deep implications of the pick-off.

At that moment, Hernan's career as a baseball player was ruined but also simultaneously a different and exciting was destined. He will one day become the GM of a baseball team and be very very successful. Why is this? Simply because the exact same thing happened to Billy Beane as a player. On page 49 of the infamous book Moneyball by Michael Lewis it is stated, "Billy got his first big league hit off Jerry Koosman─who immediately picked him off first base. It was funny; it was also sad." Billy went on to have a terrible career, which led to him choosing the path of baseball executive over player.

I'm not sure if anybody else has been picked off first base on their first major league hit, I don't feel like finding out. I wouldn't be surprised if it happened to a few others, but not more than 2 or 3.

Anyway, if this Hernan Iribarren guy becomes the next Billy Beane, you can call me God. Of course that wouldn't happen until around 10-15 years or so, and we'll all forget by then, but I'm making my prediction nevertheless.

Cheers!

Paul

Fun With Batting Average Download

2008-04-12T12:33:00.002-04:00

Yesterday Derek Carty made available for download a spreadsheet function that allows you to adjust the At bats, contact rate, HR/FB%, FB%, and BABIP of a hitter to determine what their batting average should be. Hopefully you know that certain meters such as contact rate and BABIP are better indicators of a player's future batting average than batting average itself.

This tool can prove very useful, especially in the beginning of the season, in showing whether a players performance is due more to skill or luck. Click here to see the article and at the bottom Carty has the link to click for download.

You can either play around typing in fake numbers, which is actually useful because it allows you to see which indicating stats have a greater affect on batting average than others. Or, you can type in a player's real contact rate, HR/FB%, etc. to determine what his batting average should be, and compare it to his current actual one. Those stats can be found at Fangraphs, or The Hardball Times.

Cheers!

Paul

Rich Harden Goes On the DL

2008-04-10T20:01:00.002-04:00

I'm sure you've heard that before. The injury (biceps tendinitis) is minor, and he should be back in the minimum (15 days) time, but don't expect this to be his last trip to the DL this season. He's phenomenal enough when he plays that's its worth it to keep him, but expect every start to possibly be his last. If he goes around 3-4 weeks of great pitching, consider trading him before he gets hurt again, which is an inevitable.

Cheers!

Paul

P.S. Sorry for the lack of updating, very busy right now, and by busy I don't mean lazy, I do mean busy. Starting April 18 I will be posting 3-4-5 times a week again. So I'll forewarn all of my "regulars" you don't have to check everyday for the next week. But after that, I see some clouds on the horizon which means I'll be raining (possibly typhooning) the good info. That's possibly the corniest joke but perhaps you cracked a smirk.

Moving Away From 5X5

2008-04-05T18:07:00.007-04:00

Most of the leagues I participate in are actually not your standard 5 X 5 roto leagues. My ideal scoring system would be a rotisserie regular season with a H2H playoffs, but since that's not offered on Yahoo, I opt for H2H because it honestly is much more exciting. I also make sure there is a high minimum innings pitched (discussed in a recent article) and if there isn't, I make sure to take advantage of it. Still those are not the two things I find most annoying about "standard" leagues.

I hate the 5 hitting categories. They tell you nothing of how your team performed. If you see this stat line,

1/4H/AB 1R 0HR 1RBI 0SB .250 AVG

you know absolutely nothing about the game! Perhaps the player got a a double for his hit, maybe he walked in the 3rd and got the run and later got the rbi on a sac fly. This completely changes how well the player played.

There is no easy way to fix this, but one stat that is a great addition is total bases. Total bases are basically slugging percentage without dividing the slugging by at bats. The simple formula is:

(Singles * 1) + (Doubles * 2) + (Triples * 3) + (Homeruns * 4) = TB

Now at least players who hit doubles do get extra value instead of just the higher chance of getting an rbi or run for their hit. Also, as simple as total bases is, players ranked highly by more advanced statistics tend to be ranked similarly by their amount of total bases.

You can't have a 6X5 so now you must add another pitching category. My favorites are either K/BB or holds. I'd opt with holds because it just adds another interesting dimension to the relief pitcher market, and relievers are becoming more valued in MLB baseball every year.

Total bases isn't perfect, yet since fantasy baseball still remains discouragingly tied to traditional statistics, it will suffice for current seasons. I do hope however that in the coming seasons the large fantasy baseball providers will allow you to choose more advanced statistics. For now, we wait.

Cheers!

Paul

To Sit, Or Not To Sit

2008-04-03T20:24:00.012-04:00

To sit, or not to sit... I will answer that question.

Once the baseball season begins, one of the most frustrating things from a fantasy standpoint is deciding who starts or sits for the current day.

When it comes to hitters, I have much less to think about than the average fantasy player. That's because most people have around 2-4 bench hitters. I have 1 to 2 tops on my teams. This is because bench hitter's serve no purpose except keeping your fantasy bench warm I guess. If you followed my draft strategy (obviously in the archives now) which was to go hitter heavy, your lineup should not consist of anyone close to the backup level. This means that my 1 or 2 bench guys are good but still significantly worse than anyone in my all-star lineup, thus pitching matchups (meaning who the batter is facing that night) are less decisive than their difference in skill. Basically, I go with the same hitting lineup everyday with the exception of a weaker player facing a Johan Santana.

In order to save yourself some unwanted frustration, decide right now what players you will sit in what situations. For example, tell yourself you will sit your bottom 3 pitchers against the top 5 offenses, no exceptions allowed. (we will talk about exceptions later) This lets you avoid all crazy "what if" situations that will be running through you head the next day.

Exceptions time. Please note an acceptable exception cannot be, "I just have one of those feelings Dave Bush will shut down the Phillies today, he always pitches great on 3rd Wednesdays of the month when the humidity is 58 percent." Those types of things shouldn't be taken into account if you have a life. My exceptions are very easy and logical. . .

There are two main exceptions actually, the first being changed expectations. For instance if you were lucky enough to draft...ehrm... Dan Haren last year, perhaps in the beginning of the season you were a little wary of starting him against dominant teams. However after a great first couple of months, its safe to say your expectations for him have changed, thus your start/sit rules for him must change as well. I think you can understand how that would work this year without me having to give an example.

The other exception occurs in Head-to-Head leagues under specific conditions. Let's say your pitching has been good for the past week and you are dominating wins and K's, and are barely winning in ERA and WHIP. The day is Sunday, and you have Dustin McGowan starting against the Pirates, and your opponent has no starters starting. Normally you would start Dustin "Sideburns" McGowan against the lowly Pirates, but since this situation is special you do not. Pitching him would risk you losing Era and Whip,while virtually having no upside, except for confidence from dominance, which really doesn't help you unless your the kind who likes to brag. Just keep McGowan on the bench, nothing to sophisticated going on here.

Basically, don't decide on some weird gut emotion you have to start or sit one of your lesser pitchers against a dominant offense, rather make firm preset rules and stick to them unless one of the exception situations apply.

In the meantime, enjoy the season and make sure to not be that one asshole in every league that doesn't follow.

Cheers!

Paul

Update: If you visit your Yahoo league today, you'll see this message across the top of your league page:

Matchup Ratings: All players now have 5-star ratings and a detailed note from the experts at Inside Edge, a leading professional scouting service. View these ratings on your team page Research tab, or in the News & Expert Advice section.

I checked the "5-Star Rating" for my players, and found it very arbitrary. I tried to find the "detailed note" to see what their ratings were based on and couldn't find them. Right now I don't think the rating system should be taken into account.

Update 2: This has nothing to do with the Yahoo update above, but this is just a note I forgot to include in the article. It has been proven, although I don't have the exact percentages and such, it was proven that players coming off a bad game or start have a higher chance of doing bad their next game or start. This means that if one of your pitchers has had a 9 Era over their past 2 starts, do not think they "are due" for a good game. Players are naturally streaky, so ride out those hot streaks and try to limit their cold ones. No player is ever due for anything, just keep that in mind.

Min/Max Innings Pitched Limits

2008-04-01T15:22:00.007-04:00

Almost every league you will be in this year will have a poorly set minimum innings pitched limit, which you the savvy player can take fair advantage of.

If the minimum innings pitched limit in your league is set too low (esp in H2H leagues) my strategy is to draft one elite pitcher in round 3, 4, or 5, and then one more pitcher in either rounds 8, 9, or 10. After that, your done with Sp and from there just draft the best middle relievers (Broxton, Betancourt, Pena, Okajima, Bell, plus a few others). Your pitching staff will only be comprised of those 2 Sp's and Mr's. It will look something like Brandon Webb, Roy Oswalt, and then any combination of at least 2-3 of the middle relievers I listed above. Your era and whip will be sick. Your welcome.

A limit I consider low is anywhere from no minimum up to about 20 a week. With the strategy mentioned above, you should definitely win era and whip most weeks while most likely losing wins, k's, and saves. If your league has a stat like k:bb, or k/9 , this strategy works even better because you'll most likely take that as well. Since you've made a small investment on pitching, your hitting should be good enough to net you at least 3 categories a week. If you take 4 of them, good job, you've won that week.

In a league where the min is set relatively high (Notice how I said relatively high instead of too high. That is because I believe in high minimum innings pitched limits) you should value pitchers more in your draft. If you've read my other articles on drafting strategy, you'll know I don't value pitching very high. In fact, in most of my leagues my first pitcher taken was Rich Hill somewhere in the low double-digit rounds. So when I say "I will value pitching more," that does not mean take Santana or Peavy. It just means be more aware that you must actually build a staff of quality pitchers. Rich Hill might still be my first pitcher taken, but I'll make sure to take guys like Ian Snell, McGowan, Shields, Vazquez, Cain, Lilly, Billingsley, and Wainwright in the following rounds.

Personally, I feel maximum innings pitched limits are unnecessary. Pitching is already devalued in leagues, so why devalue it more by placing a max limit? There are so many pitchers, that if you force teams to only play 2-3, you'll end up in a league with Zack Greinke and Jeff Francis on the f/a market. Stupid.

I will admit there is a purpose to max innings pitched limits, and that is to prevent people from "streaming" pitchers. For those who don't know, streaming involves adding pitchers that are pitching that day and then dropping them the next day for whoever is pitching then. The skill of the pitcher doesn't matter because the strategy is to just to compile as many wins and k's as possible, while bombing Era and Whip. This strategy lets you almost split the pitching categories without having to invest in pitching at all. In order to prevent streaming in your league either place a moves limit, or simply make a "gentleman's agreement" with the people in your league not to stream. Problem solved! Once again there is no reason for a max innings limit so forget about them.

If you can tell by what I've said so far, I feel a good min innings limit is anywhere from 35-50. The higher the limit, the more you should value pitching.

Also, just because you've already had your draft doesn't mean this doesn't apply to you. If you check your settings and see your league has a 15 min innings pitched limit and you own Beckett, Verlander, Haren, and King Felix, then go trade 2 or 3 of them to bolster your hitting knowing that your pitching will hold its own.

Don't forget to leave your comments!

Cheers

Paul

Sleeper Alert: Jason Giambi

2008-03-30T17:49:00.003-04:00

Jason Giambi may be owned in your league or he may not. Whatever the case may be, he should be on your radar. Last year his season was ruined by injuries and that may happen again this year, but so far he feels and great and is hitting great. He finished the spring with a .413 batting average and 2 home runs.

When aging sluggers decline in power, you normally see their peripheral stats decrease as well. His line drive percentage has decreased since his monster years, but 16.5% is still respectable. He's still drawing walks at a great pace, and his slugging percentage should come back to his career level of .536 with his good health. He's obviously batting in a great lineup so runs and rbi's should approach the century mark as long as he gets regular playing time.

Playing time could be an issue with Giambi considering the Yankees want to give Shelly Duncan and Wilson Betemit some at bats. Either way I believe Giambi will get plenty of at bats and it won't be issue since reports are that he's playing a good 1st base.

There's obviously a chance that at 37 years old Giambi just won't have enough left to play well for a full season, but considering the cheap price you can get him at, I think he's worth the risk. The high reward is definitely there for a season with a .260-.270 ba, .410-.430 obp, 30 homers, 85 runs, 110 rbi's, and the ever important 1 stolen base.

Giambi is not a guy like Delgado whose age has caught up to him. Right now all the indicators are present that Giambi will rebound this year. If he is on the f/a market, take a chance and add him if you've got somebody you feel comfortable dropping. If he's on the bench of another team, then offer them something small for him like a average pitcher and see if you can acquire him that way. Giambi doesn't have to be your starting 1st baseman now, but by the end of the season when you've won your league, you just might find him there.

Cheers!

Paul

March Madness!!!

2008-03-30T13:23:00.007-04:00

Let the [real] season begin!!!

No, I'm not talking about a college basketball tournament where thousands of people lose millions of dollars, but rather Major League Baseball where millions of people enjoy thousands of games. (2,430 to be exact)

My real reason for this post was just to see how many people come to my site looking for college basketball info, only to be disappointed and leave. Sorry if your one of them.

Cheers!

Paul

Update: I participated in a bracket this year and came in 2nd, which netted me $25 so March Madness is acceptable, as a long as I win.

Yahoo Makes Itself Useful

2008-03-29T11:12:00.009-04:00

For almost every fantasy baseball league I've been in, I've used Yahoo and its worked out fine. Yea sure, there are definitely some things I would change about the Yahoo system, but overall I'm satisfied.

When it came to Yahoo's fantasy advice however , mostly from Funston, Evans, Buser, and Behrens, I wasn't satisfied.

Funston's Big Board is completely useless; a listing of his top 50/100 players does not help me win a fantasy league. Sometimes I'll just read the sounding board because it can be amusing.

Evans and Behrens will occasionally write an interesting article, however usually they are simply average.

Buser is the one Yahoo expert I like. His two articles Law of Averages, and Law of Average Part II are extremely interesting and you should definitely take a look.

Anyway the reason I'm writing this article is to let you know that the Yahoo staff has just made itself useful in my opinion by releasing a couple of nifty spreadsheets containing every players' stats. It's not a list of ERA, or batting average, but rather more of the skill indicator stats like Babip, LD%, etc.

Click here for the pitcher's spreadsheet

Click here for the hitter's spreadsheet

If you don't know some of the stats, refer to their glossary page.

Enjoy the season,

Paul

And You Thought A-Rod Was Paid Too Much

2008-03-26T18:20:00.009-04:00

All you ever hear regarding salaries goes something like this, "Player's are sooo overpaid!". That is true, the salaries of some players (ehem A-Rod) can be disheartening to some. However no one, or at least very few people talk about the exorbitant salary of these people. It's not the managers, scouts, team executives, or the cotton candy vendor that is overpaid, but rather the always impressive, Bud Selig. The man made an astounding 15.05 million dollars last year.

Well I did some research and found out that although Selig does make more than the other major sport commissioners, its not that much more. NFL commish Roger Goodell's annual salary is $11.2 million, and NBA commish David Stern makes around $10 mil; they're overpaid too.

Still last year MLB paid $85.1 million to its 236 employees. Perhaps that money could go some place else besides the pockets of people whose job it is to ignore steroids and schedule games at inconvenient hours in Japan.

Let the players make as much money as they can; they're the ones putting their bodies at risk on the field every day. I'd rather see them make millions of dollars than Bud Selig.

Just for fun I typed Bud Selig's name into an anagram generator just to find out if there are any clever re-letterings of his name. Unfortunately the best 3 were: Digs Lube, Bugs Lied, and Big Duels. Nothing too insightful, unless he digs lube in which case I'm a genius.

The contracts of every baseball player and executive can be conveniently found at Cot's Baseball Contracts.

Cheers!

Paul

You Just Might Thank Me Later

2008-03-24T20:01:00.008-04:00

If your fantasy baseball league has multiple DL spots, pay close attention to these specific instructions:

Step 1) Go to your league's home and click on the 'Player' tab (assuming your using Yahoo)

Step 2) Search these exact letters in the search box: 'Gonzalez' (w/o the quotes)

Step 3) scan the list of results and find a Mike Gonzalez RP, ATL

Step 4) If player (Mike Gonzalez) is currently unowned, then immediately add him to your roster.

Step 5) Drop your worst player, or your best player...it honestly won't matter

Step 6) Once returned to the 'My Team' page, add Mike Gonzalez to the DL.

Step 7) Now re-add the player you dropped to get Mike Gonzalez, or another player if you so choose

Step 8) All you have to do now, is wait!

I'm telling you to do this because right now the closer situation in Atlanta is a little messy. Current closer Rafael Soriano is dealing with a sore-elbow problem, and although he is ready to start the season, He's had issues with his elbow before evidently as he had Tommy John surgery back in 2004. So obviously this is a major concern for all Braves fans and Soriano owners.

Now the guy I told you to add, Mike Gonzalez, is actually currently recovering from Tommy John surgery himself, and is slated to return to the mound a little after the All-Star Break. But so what? since right now you've just stashed him on your roster for free!

There is a man named Peter Moylan, a man you should know something about since he had a pretty spectacular, yet under-the-radar season last year. If Soriano goes out before Gonzalez can return, Moylan will become the closer. However, post All-Star Break if Rafael Soriano gets 'DL'ed, Gonzalez almost certainly will become the Braves closer. In other leagues, there will be a scramble for this guy, and only one will claim the prize. You however, will already have him on your roster and will be able to exclaim, "Haha, bitched you all!"

Of course there's a fair chance Soriano simply stays healthy, and Gonzalez becomes droppable when he returns. Well, then just shrug your shoulders and move one, cause you didn't pay nothing for 'em.

Cheers!

Paul

Don't Buy the Hype

2008-03-22T12:10:00.006-04:00

Last year was a crazy year for rookies in baseball. A plethora of youngsters made the jump to the big leagues and performed well...almost too well. Hunter Pence, Ryan Braun, Dustin Pedroia, Joba Chamberlain, Yovani Gallardo, and Troy Tulowitzki all had impressive rookie campaigns. And so this year, not surprisingly, people are drafting rookies way too early. Let them draft their Evan Longorias (no relation to Eva), Jacoby Ellisburys, and Clay "Itchy" Buchholz because last year was simply fluky.

I'm not saying that the rookies of last year (Pence, Braun, etc.) had fluky seasons, as I am expecting similar production from many of them; however I am saying that the amount of first-timers that proved valuable last year was unusually high and this year's rookies won't compare. I'm also not saying avoid rookies at all costs because a few this year most likely will put up valuable numbers. If Evan Longoria falls to you in the 19th round, scoop him up, but don't take him in the 12th and expect him to be your primary 3rd baseman. It's simply too risky. Yes the reward is there, but I don't like finishing either last or first in every league I'm in. It also won't be a 50/50 first to last split, it will be more of a 92/8.

I'm sure everyone has heard the adage: a hitter's prime starts when he hits that 26/27 age mark, or has 3 years experience. Consider it good advice to draft players hitting their prime. The reward is still there and the floor isn't as low, or as in some rookie's cases, nonexistent.

So instead of drafting Longoria, take Kevin Kouzmanoff or Hank Blalock. Don't worry about Jacoby, take Pat Burrell or Nick Swisher. Screw Joey Votto and take Ryan Garko or Conor Jackson.

Here's a list of players I feel are primed to breakout:

Dustin McGowan
Ian Snell (kinda did last year, but still being drafted late)
Josh Hamilton
Kelly Johnson
Chris Duncan
Jhonny Peralta

Now here's some rookies I wouldn't take until very late:

Geovany Soto
Andy LaRoche
Jay Bruce
Colby Rasmus
Ian Kennedy

Now of course the fun part about avoiding rookies is that after they have dissapointing rookie seasons and decent sophmore ones, you get to draft them late for their breakout third season when your league-mates have already forgotten them and moved onto next year's class of rookies.

Lastly, if you are in a keeper league, ignore everything in this post.

Cheers!

Paul

An Interesting Blog

2008-03-21T23:48:00.003-04:00

An MLB scout, Frankie Piliere, and his more sabermetric-minded friend, Kiley McDaniel, have started their own blog aptly named Saber-Scouting. On it they combine their mix of sabermetric and mechanical analysis to form interesting views on players. Definitely a site to check out.

Cheers!

Paul

I Need A Tissue

2008-03-20T16:36:00.003-04:00

I need a tissue because I have an issue...with fantasy baseball that is. All too often I get discouraged by the incredibly high amount of luck involved with fantasy baseball. Do you know how remarkably lucky you have to get to win a league? Well, I'm not here to give you some exact percentage, but I'm sure the number is higher than any competitive player would want it to be.

You spend hours upon hours reading all the articles you can find across the web, preparing cheat sheets and tiered rankings, and reading about some linear weights theory, which sounds good to you, although no site offers a spreadsheet of the statistic. So all of this research, all of the time you've put in, and you still find your fate tied to the fantasy gods. Doesn't sound like much fun does it?

Sure the educated do have an edge over the blind, but I find that edge discouragingly small. A regular fantasy player will beat an expert waaay too many times out of one-hundred. This is because we aren't drafting robots, we are drafting human beings that get injured, have slumps, and can sometimes outright suck. Some feel this is what gives the game its edge, however at the end of a season with a disappointing finish, sometimes one cannot help but feel like the game can be a waste of time.

I guess this is the case with many things in life...oh well. I like to think luck favors the prepared, so go read those articles, go fill out your rankings, and constantly check your league homepage because when you win that way, victory is that much sweeter.

Cheers!

Paul

Jap Anus Relations

2008-03-19T15:35:00.003-04:00

Astros 2nd basemen, Kaz Matsui will start the season on the DL. This really only applies to really deep leagues, where one might consider picking such a mediocre player. So what's ailing this import? According to Yahoo! sports it is this:

"Brian McTaggert, of the Houston Chronicle, reports Houston Astros 2B Kazuo Matsui (anus) is likely to begin the season on the disabled list."

Yes folks, its his anus. Hope it feels better soon, maybe some soothing lotion will help although I can't call myself an expert on the topic.

Lastly if you do not get my title, its from SNL's Celebrity Jeopardy. For the record I hate Saturday Night Live. Some things do get old.

Cheers!

Paul

Draft Deals

2008-03-13T19:39:00.004-04:00

To be honest, I'm not sure how widely known draft deals are, and if they are commonly used. In case they aren't well known, draft deals (at least that's what I call them) are an agreement between two players in a league who each agree not to take a player of the other's choice.

Example:

You: "I won't take Nick Swisher if you won't take Jeff Francouer"
Other: "deal"

So when the draft comes around, you know that Francouer won't be taken by the guy you made the deal with.

These deals should be made prior to the draft, and apply more to leagues where you and your close buddies are the managers. That probably makes this article irrelevant to. . . ehmm.. about, I don't know, about 50% of leagues. That's an arbitrary guess, but draft deals are quite underutilized in close-knit or returning leagues, where you know the types of players other managers tend to like (so I think, I've never been in a league with more than 3 of them).

Take advantage of a person's "man crush" player (Nick Swisher in my case). Tell them you won't pick "their guy" if they don't pick a player your targeting.

Time for the part of this article I've been waiting to share. . . this is definitely a strategy you've never heard of, and its something I've never tried, only thought of in theory. Hypothetically, although it would be difficult to pull off, you could make a draft deal with every manager in the league for the same player.

Let's say that player is Nick Markakis. So this means no one in your league except you is able to draft Nick Markakis. What do you do? You draft Nick the Stick in last round of your draft! Talk about getting value.

Of course the down side is that in a 12-team league there are 11 guys, probably of equal value to Markakis, that you won't be able to draft. However let's think about this, without doing this (almost impossible) strategy you'll get Markakis in the 4th round, and then your last round pick, whoever it may be. If you manage to employ the strategy however, you can draft a player equal to 5th round value in the fourth round, considering the 11 players you cannot draft are of 4th round value, and then you get Markakis in the last round.

Since the other rounds of the draft would remain unaffected, this is basically the same as trading your last round pick for a 5th round pick. Sound good to you?

Again I have never tried this, and there's a good chance I never will. But please, if anyone does pull this off successfully, tell me how it went so I know if I'm actually smart or just a moron who thinks he is.

Cheers!

Paul

Mr. Balky, He's Back!

2008-03-07T23:58:00.005-05:00

i amThere's a name I'm gonna throw out there, tell me if you've ever heard of this player. Randy Johnson. What. . .what was that? Oh you have heard of this guy. Very well then. Whether you are aware or not, he might be pitching in a stadium located near you this season; or he could be pitching for your fantasy team this season.

Randy, or the "Big Unit", has had some monster seasons. For example, the average stats from his 1999- 2002 campaigns are 257 IP, a 1.045 WHIP, 2.48 ERA, and the most impressive of them all, 354 k's per season. Could you imagine if you played fantasy baseball back then! Those numbers even make Johan jealous.

Now we are 7 years later, Johnson is 44 and coming off major back surgery. . . two surgeries actually. The first one was to repair a herniated disc, and the second one removed that same disc. Sounds like a guy you want, right? Don't worry I know it isn't.

Let's see where he's being taken to get an idea of what his value is. According to mockdraftcentral.com, his average draft position is 218, or an 18th round pick in a standard 12-team league. Therefore, you don't have to invest a lot to get him.

Now let's see what you can expect from Johnson if you do draft him. Over the past two years he's pitched 261 innings, and and struck out 244 batters. K's show if a pitcher is still "dominating" hitters, and its always a good sign to see an older pitcher maintain his k rate the way Randy has. I don't expect him to return to his former ways, but I do expect a sort of rebound season from him.

Now lets take a look on what one can expect in terms of numbers from Johnson. Based on this article: http://baseballmachine.blogspot.com/2008/03/why-projection-systems-are-useless.html I'm not just gonna give you one median projection, but a set of worst to best with a percentage after them.

Waste of a Pick: He barely pitches do to injuries.
Projection: 0 IP, 0 etc.
Chance: 20%

Bad: Misses significant time to injuries, or is ineffective
Projection: 60 IP, 2 wins, 4.80 era, 1.42 whip, 48 Ks
Chance: 10%

Average: Pitches, but performs like an 18th round pick
Projection: 165 IP, 4.30 era, 1.34 whip, 140 Ks
Chance: 35%

Solid: Pitches well, gives you positive value for your pick
Projection: 170 IP, 3.82 era, 1.25 Whip, 155 Ks
Chance: 30%

Spectacular: Pitches like the Randy we once knew
Projection: 185 IP, 3.35 era, 1.16 whip, 175 Ks
Chance: 5%

So obviously there is a solid chance based on my projections that Randy Johnson will prove to be a valuable pick late in your draft.

Cheers!

Paul

P.S. If your wondering why it says posted on Friday when this is first coming up on Sunday is because Blogger posts the date when i first start writing the article, not when I publish it. Nothing I can do.

A Little Thing Called Sample Size

2008-03-05T20:38:00.004-05:00

Its this time of year, spring training. Can you feel the excitement in the air!!! Well I can't. The results in spring training are relatively meaningless from a fan standpoint, and extremely meaningless from a fantasy standpoint. Why is that? Well besides the obvious fact that players might not be giving it their "all" (at least the ones who have secured roster spots), its because of sample size.

Players only play in a small number of games, which means only a small number of at bats. In case I need to spell everything out for you, this just happens to work for pitchers as well with their innings pitched. To put it into poetic form, "A small sample of at bats is like a box of chocolates, you never know what your gonna get."

I would not be surprised if last year a guy like Xavier Nady out-hit Alex Rodriguez over the course of one week in the MLB season. (perhaps it was near the playoffs?). This means that based on the results of one week of games, the true value of a player is not revealed. Players get lucky/unlucky, they get hot, get cold, and there are just too many variables to even count. Over the course of an entire season, however, those variables tend to even out and tah daaaa! the true value appears.

Of course there are such nuances as unlucky seasons or just plain bad seasons (probably due to injuries). That's where stats like BABIP, FIP, DIPS WHIP, and LIPS ERA come into play. Although I won't explain them today, (BABIP I have in previous articles) Hey! Check back soon another day.

I can rhyme. . . sort of.

Cheers!

Paul

Specific Drafting Strategy

2008-03-03T20:40:00.014-05:00

The draft strategy I will talk about in this post is not general, in fact it is the strategy I've found most effective specifically for drafts this year. I've found it the best after analyzing the resulting teams from probably around 25 mock drafts I've completed over at mockdraftcentral.com

I'll break it down based on where I feel the best time is to draft each position, and obviously it will vary greatly based on what you pick is in draft, so I'll tell you now it works best with picks 6-10 in a 12-team league.

Catchers - Do not take any of the elites, it simply ruins your chances at filling holes at other positions. I've found that Posada will fall sometimes, once I got him in the ninth round, which is good value. I'd say avoid Mauer, I think he gets over picked, and isn't even that great in fantasy. Johima is good value if he falls past the tenth. I'd say best value is taking Soto, Bengie around 13th round or Ramon Hernandez a couple rounds later. Noticed how J.R. Towles was not named, he's too unproven.

1st Basemen - I say don't go elite, but its not the worst if you do. I'm fine taking a Travis Hafner or Morneau in the 4th/5th round. If you miss them, go with Konerko, Pena, or Adrian Gonzalez around the 7/8th round. Notice Adrian Gonzalez in bold, that means he's important. Also do not take Carlos Delgado, I know; trust me I know, he will not rebound.

2nd basemen - Again avoid elites, no Chase Utley in the first round, no Brandon Phillips or BJ Upton in the second. There's just too many good sleeper 2nd basemen that are solid that go oh so late. Kelly Johnson is my favorite, followed by the likes of Placido Polanco, Aaron Hill, and Mark Ellis. Solid players available late, get'em.

3rd Basemen - This is what you've been waiting for, GET ELITE. This means get Wright, Miggy, Braun, Aramis, Atkins, Chipper, Chone (not the projection system), or Ryan Zimmerman. Get one of them! I don't care which, just get one. Trust Me. The drop-off is steep. You'll survive with Beltre, Gordon (eh, risky), but get an elite. If you manage to screw this up, I say don't pick those Beltre, Gordon guys and wait on either Youkilis or Kouzmanoff. They are better value and high to decent upside. Get elite!

Short Stop - Here it is again, target an elite shortstop. Either get one of the big three (Reyes, Hanley, Rollins) or get one of the next big three (Tulo, Guillen or Jeter). Again I do not care which one, just get one. If you do manage to fail at this, look to bargain towards Khalil Greene if you want power, or Theriot/Julio Lugo for some late steals. Get an elite SS.

Outfield - This position was shallow last year, its deep this year. Just pick it around your other picks. I'll give some specific guys I like to target: Corey Hart, Delmon Young, Nick Markakis, Francoeur, Pat Burrell, and Nick Swisher. I'd avoid Alex Rios (taken too high), Vlad, Magglio, Crawford, Brad Hawpe. Obviously those guys are good, I just feel they are being taken too high. Late round sleepers you can take a risk on are Jack Cust, Colby Rasmus, Adam Jones, Josh Hamilton.

Starting Pitching - When I call the position of outfield deep, that means starting pitching is like a bottomless crevice from which you might think liquid-hot magma would spew. That's relatively speaking of couse, but understand that there are just so many good starting pitchers that please, I'm begging you, do not take Johan or Peavy or Beckett or Bedard despite how much your index finger may twitch when you scroll your mouse over one of their names. Don't even think about taking a pitcher from the next tier of players either. Start taking an Sp around pick 100 when Lincecum, Rich Hill, Shields (check out the k/bb!), and Javier V start going. Then wait a pick to take guys like Billingsley, Lilly, Snell, and Liriano (if your willing). Notice guys I did not name like Fausto, Halladay, and Burnett (no offense to those Blue Jays fans). Then finish by filling out your roster with solid pitchers like Dustin McGowan, Wainwright, Gorzo, Blanton, and Jeff Francis. If you want, take a late-round flier on Rich Harden.

Relief Pitchers - Anyone reading my blog is I hope not stupid enough to take a Putz or Papelbon round 5-6. So where do we go from there? HOW ABOUT NOT TAKE ANOTHER CLOSER UNTIL ROUND 15!!!! I know Matthew Berry is a big advocator of this strategy, and I am too. Maybe get a decent closer late like CJ Wilson, Joakim Soria, Brandon Lyon, Troy Percival, or Isringhausen/Capps if they fall. Although I listed those names, I'd rather have the top tier setup men than the cheap closers who have a good chance of losing their jobs. The best set-up men are Betancourt, Heath Bell, Jon Broxton, Okajima, and Scot Shields. These guys have a decent chance of closing themselves, and bring great ratios, and high K rates. Do not get elite.

That's it! If you happen to get a late pick, open this post right away and follow it as best you can. I personally guarentee your team will do well, or else I'll . . .ehrm . . .well you didn't give me anything for reading this, so I have nothing to give you back.

Cheers!

Paul

Why Projection Systems are Useless

2008-03-02T15:40:00.005-05:00

When someone says projection systems, I think of words like Chone, Marcels, and Pecota. A lot of baseball sites pridefully boast that they feature the new year's player projections from these systems. I immediately leave those sites.

The reason I dislike these systems is not because they are wrong. In fact, according to what I've heard, they are fairly accurate. The reason I dislike them is because the systems themselves are extremely predictable. As a hitter gets older, decrease his power and speed; as a pitcher gets older decrease his K rate. I don't need a projection system to tell me Carlos Lee's numbers will be around .300 avg, 30 homers, 100 rbi/runs, and 10 SB. When it comes to bold predictions, projection systems like Chone, Marcels, and Pecota have none of them. For a fantasy owner, that makes them irrelevant.

Any moron can draft dependable players and finish respectably in a fantasy league. But if you have the desire to win, you must pick players with upside, the Ryan Brauns and Fausto Carmonas of last year. Those are obviously extreme examples, and those two were highly improbably; so improbable that in fact it would have been unwise to spend even a last round pick on them. Those players are the rewards for persistent owners that constantly check updates and are ready to pounce on the f/a market.

I'm talking about players this year like Frank Thomas, Jason Giambi, Evan Longoria and Clay Buchholz. There's a fair chance they do nothing or play mediocre, however there's that small chance they play amazingly. It's those value picks that win you fantasy leagues. A quote from Matthew Berry puts it best, "You can't win the league in the first round but you certainly can lose it."

Notice how my player examples included older veterans like Thomas and Giambi. I'm not a big fan of drafting rookies like Longoria, as they usually take a few years to adjust. Last year was simply a uniquely crazy year where many rookies thrived in the bigs. Don't expect that to happen again, to the same extent at least. However proven players, usually ones who have recently suffered injuries, often prove to be the best sleeper candidates. I'm not saying target players who were recently injured, that's stupid, but certain formerly talented players fall so far in drafts that they become worth a late round gamble.

The aforementioned quote by Mr. berry leads me to my second point of this article, avoid players who have a high risk rate. That means don't pick Albert Pujols in your draft this year! It's simply just not worth it. Your first/second round picks should have virtually no risk attached to them. Pujols is very, very risky with that elbow, and even his best case scenario isn't much better than your alternative options. His worst case scenario is, however, much worse. Avoid.

Projection systems usually fail to recognize these types of players. Lists of break-out/collapsing candidates are much more valuable than viewing whole projection systems. Most of them just average a player's stats over the last few years, placing more weight on recent years. Although fairly accurate, that isn't exactly useful, as long as you are not a moron.

I believe baseball prospectus (a site I am not a subscriber to, because of monetary issues) lists a collapse rate for all the players. This is extremely useful, and apparently they do decent job since they listed Jason Bay as probably candidate for a collapse last year. If you are fortunate enough to be a subscriber, avoid any player with a high collapse rate, and target those with high break-out rates. That was an obvious statement, but too many people ignore those percentages and just listen to a projection system that takes no risks. Don't be that guy.

Cheers!

Paul

Pre-Season Predictions

2008-03-01T12:49:00.004-05:00

Spring Training is a great time of year for baseball fans. Baseball scores return again to the ESPN bottom line, fantasy baseball drafts are stressfully being completed, and player performance in these meaningless spring-training games are over-hyped. That's a valuable piece of information - don't get overly excited/nervous about the results of a spring training game. However that's not what I'm here to talk to you about, today at least.

I'm writing simply to put my predictions in stone. It's always fun (if you are patient enough) to wait till the end of the season and see how horrific your predictions were (or amazing if your me). Anyways, so here's my preseason predictions:

Al East

1st - BoSox: rotation vaults them over the Yankees

2nd - Yankees: they will once again be vying for the wild card this year

3rd - Blue Jays: they are an average team, but if rotation stays healthy will be an above-average club

4th - Rays: great young rotation, will tkae third place next year

5th - Orioles: nothing happening in Baltimore

Al Central

1st - Indians: Solid everywhere, just edge Tigers

2nd - Tigers: beast lineup and solid pitching, but too many players had career years

3rd - White Sox: traded away their future for a non-existent present

4th - Twins: Liriano, Mauer, Morneau keep them from being worst

5th - Royals: players still young and immature

Al West

1st - Angels: pretty solid all-around, weak division helps

2nd - Mariners: great front two, after that weak rotation and lineup

3rd - A's: even if healthy, they're a few years away

4th - Rangers: their Gm is the Isiah Thomas of the MLB (to an extent)

Nl East

1st - Mets: it pains me, but they will most-likely will pull it off

2nd - Phillies: can't compete with their pitching

3rd - Braves: same as Phils

4th/5th - Marlins and Nationals: honestly no one cares who comes in what

Nl Central

1st - Cubbies: just edge Brewers

2nd - Brewers: rotation simply a notch worse

3rd - Astros: after Oswalt pitching isn't there

4th - Reds: going in the right direction at least

5th - Cardinals: they have the look of a spiraling team

6th - Pirates: Glad I'm not a Pirates fan, all I have to say

Nl West - Toughest to predict

1st - Rockies - last year was a little flukey, but they are still the best

2nd - D'Backs - great 1-2 punch with question marks after that, lineup extremely young and unproven, yet very talented

3rd: Dodgers: no, not because of Torre, rather their solid lineup and decent rotation

4th - Padres: rotation isn't great after Peavy and Young, and their line-up isn't any better than last year's

5th - Giants: lineup will be one of worst all time, rotation has some intriguing young stars

I Don't Want A Player To Be Named Later!?!?

2007-11-25T17:28:00.000-05:00

Ever seen across the ESPN bottom line the following, "Cubs trade Rich Hill to the Marlins for a player to be named later"

If your a Cubs fan your probably screaming at the television saying, "Did we even get anything back for him!?" And if your a Marlins fan then your saying, "Sweet! we got Rich Hill and didn't even give up anyone to get him!"

This year when the Padres traded Jack Cust to the A's for a player to be named later and Cust immediately made an impact with 7 homeruns in his first 10 games, I wondered, who did the A's give up to get this guy?

I thought of all kinds of crazy theories like: 1)the Padres just wanted to rid themselves of Cust, so agreed to give him away before actually agreeing on who they get back. 2) The Padres wanted to see him perform but didn't want to waste the at-bats, so A's agreed to give him the at-bats, and would either return him or give them a player who performed the same as Cust. This obviously got me worried that my A's would have to give away some good player for Cust.

So, being the solutions oriented guy that I am, got down to the bottom of this. The details are pretty complicated, as are all MLB transaction rules, but I'll try to make it as clear and straightfoward as possible.

The most important thing to know is that while one team receives the one player (the Jack Cust) the other team does receive one player later, specifically within 6 months. Now, what goes down is that, and I'll use the Jack Cust example, the Pads agree to give Cust away, and the A's give a list of players to the Padres of which they will choose one within six months to keep.

Over these six months the Padres will intensely scout the "listed" players, and eventually choose one to keep.

The six month rule comes from a 1987 trade between the Detroit Tigers and the Chicago Cubs, in which the Tigers gave the Cubs a player, I do not know his name, in exchange for a player to be named later. The two teams could never agree on the player to be named later, and so after the season, the Cubs simply gave the Tiger's player back. The MLB considered this unacceptable and put in the 6 month rule.

Unfortunately there have not been too many exciting "player to be named later deals" as they are usually side add-ons where premier players are not swapped. However, there was a pretty big one back in 2002 between the A's (of course) and the Tigers. The A's gave Carlos Pena (don't worry, he didn't hit 46 home runs that year) and Franklyn German, and a player to be named later for Jeff Weaver. The Tigers decided between several prospects until a couple of months later they chose Jeremy Bonderman. This appeared huge a year ago, until in 2007 Bonderman fell apart in the second half, although hopes are still pretty high on the young pitcher.

Well now you know everything there is to know about the player to be named later rule. Hopefully you won't flip out at your television next time you see this type of deal.

Cheers!

Paul

An Interesting Drafting Strategy

2007-11-22T14:02:00.000-05:00

Today I'm going to talk about an interesting draft strategy I've conceived. It has nothing to do with when you should draft pitchers, in fact it has very little to do with the draft at all. It has everything to do with dealing after the draft.

The strategy is simple: Draft known first-half performers, and avoid known second-half performers. Now, there are only a few of these types of players that continually do this, and I'm sure correlation from year to year is pretty weak. I do not feel like running the numbers right now, maybe another day, but I'm positive we'd find a group of players that have a habit at starting slow and heating up, and others that do the opposite.

Well who wants players that you know are gonna fall apart when it matters most, playoff time. The key to this as I mentioned before is trading.

Hopefully before the draft you made a list of 1st-half performers and 2nd-half performers. You drafted some of the 1st-halfers, and avoided the second-halfers. Come mid-season, and your probably riding pretty high considering the players you hopefully drafted. However, you are aware of an imminent drop off in production from your team. So, you start taking a look-see at that 2nd-half player list, and you make offers.

The people who own those players, who hopefully did bad as you expected, are most-likely disgruntled by that players performance and is eager to make a trade, especially with someone whose having a great season. (so far. . .)

The two of you make a trade, and you receive a player whose stats look much worse than you player you gave. Not a reason to be upset, even if your league-mates jeer you about it. You'll be the happy one when the player you got, say Mark Teixeira, heats up as the weather does, and the player you gave, say Justin Morneau, does horrible the second half. This example would be a realistic example of a solid trade to make with the playoffs in mind, and after all that's what you are after.

This example was overall very peachy and most-likely will not happen. However, let's say you trade for 3 players that were on your 2nd-halfers list, and only 1 of them turns out to have an amazing second half, usually it is worth it. The trick is finding players with strong year-to-year correlations, since they are the most-likely to do as you expect.

This strategy is very small in terms that only a few players are being targeted/avoided. But I always employ one major overall strategy with many little side ones implemented. . on the side. I advise you not to focus your entire draft around it, but use dome middle-to-late round selections on early birds that you hope to trade in a couple of months.

E-mail me if you have any questions or comments for me, or leave comment.

Cheers!

Paul

Deception Detection: Trade Advice

2007-11-18T00:07:00.000-05:00

First I'd like to say I'm sorry I haven't been posting as often as usual, this will probably be the frequency of my posting: twice during the week, and one or two over the weekend.

Onto the article! Now I'm gonna tell you another way to act deceitfully to help you get an edge on the competition.

Hopefully you are in an active league, where trade offers are constantly flying around. Plenty of people are not confident in their abilities to judge trades, so they will ask fellow league memebers advice on trades.

The correct thing to do in if a league-mate asks you advice on a trade, is to analyze the deal, see how the players fit into their respective teams, and then give an honest answer. However, fantasy sports are not for people who stay inside the lines. . . lying, acting deceitful, and bending the rules are all within limit. I mean, if a person is unable to judge a deal themselves, that means they do not have enough confidence to judge a deal themselves, and who doesn't enjoy screwing with people with low confidence? I do not endorse straight-out cheating by the way, because then victory will not taste as sweet, however bending the rules is certainly within limit.

So here's the example: It's a couple days after draft, season has not started yet. You feel pretty good about your team (because you prepared) but you noticed that John Johnson has a very decent team, which you are afraid to play. Well, the next day John Johnson asks for your advice on a trade completely horrible for him. Normally you'd say that the trade is horrible reject it immediately. You are in a deceitful mood however, and since you would not mind seeing John Johnson's team get a little worse, you recommend he do the trade. Well, he ends up doing the horrible trade, and at the end of the season you finish 3 points ahead of him. Seems worth it to me doesn't it?

That's a bit of an extreme example, and its very unlikely the person you give fake advice to finished just behind you, making it worth it. But hey, you never know, I've been in some extremely close league's before, and this one simple move can make all of the difference.

Of course, be aware of anyone else doing this to you, although I would doubt anyone else knows about this strategy. . . unless they read my blog as well. (wouldn't that be something?) That's it for today, check back soon for more insght.

Cheers!

Paul

The Hardest Thing In Fantasy Sports

2007-11-12T20:03:00.000-05:00

Today I'm going to talk about the part of fantasy sports that every fantasy player struggles with. It is not forming opinions on players early in the season.

Too often a player struggles in April and we are ready to cut him or trade him away for nothing. Even though for the past several years this player has proven himself as a dependable fantasy starter, after one month we consider him valueless.

On the flip side, too often a player who has never performed at the major league level kicks off the season with a bang and that annoying Yahoo! banner appears, "3950 people have added Overa Cheiver."

Don't be that guy. Understand that sample size is key to all statistics. The larger the sample size, the closer the results will be to the "actual".

Knowing this and acting upon this are very different. It is very, very, incredibly difficult to have confidence in a struggling player, and understand that an overacheiving player will not keep it up.

Think of Mark Hendrickson this year. His era through the 21.2 innings he pitched in the month of April - 1.66. Boy that didn't last. By just the end of may it was up to 4.17, and his end-of-season era was a lovely 5.21. You might be thinking to yourself, "what idiot would believe Mark Hendrickson could keep that up?" Well you'd be surprised how many people added him in leagues, and the quality players people gave up to get him.

Batters can also make turnarounds. Colorado Rockies 3rd baseman Garrett Atkins had the "good" type of them. Through the first two months of the season he was batting just .223 with 3 homers, 21 rbi, and a .632 OPS. Then magically the weather got hot, and so did he. In June Atkins batted .305 with 8 homers - almost tripling his total from the first two months. And he never slowed down from there, never batting under .300 in any other month. His end of season line was .301, (helped by that extra regular season game) 25 homers, and 111 rbi's. A very respectable season for someone who looked like the living dead the first two months of the season.

Unfortunately, it is not that easy. There are players who start out slowly. . . and end slowly. Some players also begin quickly. . . and end quickly. Such players as Travis Hafner, Jason Bay, and Ervin Santana all had great 2006 seasons, underperformed greatly at the outset of the 2007 season, and continued to ruin expectations. Players like Carlos Pena, Brandon Phillips, and Curtis Granderson started hot, and ended so. I'd consider these players outcasts, phenomena, wonders of the universe or whatever you want to call it. The majority of players who under/over perform expectations will most often return to their career norms.

Of course, we have certain stats to explain why players aren't producing normally, e.g. BABIP, LD%, LOB%, etc. Sometimes, however, you just have to attribute it to being too early in the season.

Cheers!

Paul

Deception Detection: False Compliments

2007-11-10T18:08:00.000-05:00

"Those who compliment you on what you do not have, are trying to take from you what you do have."

I've forgotten who said this quote, so if you are the person who said it, I'm sorry; and if you know who did say it, please thank them.

Anyway, onto its fantasy baseball relevance. I can't really explain it without giving an example; so here's the example. You have a starting pitching corp with one ace, let's say Johan Santana, and a bunch of embarrassing pitchers to own, let's say Chris Capuano, Braden Looper, and Jarrod Washburn. With Johan I guess it can be considered formidable, (it's a deep league) however without Santana, it becomes a disgraceful excuse of a pitching staff.

Now, another owner in your league is asking about acquiring Johan. You, as a knowledgeable fantasy participant say, "No way! without Santana I have nothing!" Well he (or she I guess), as a prudent fantasy player, will try to convince you that that your "other" pitchers are good enough, so that you are willing to part with your beloved Venezuelan ace.

You must not listen to his (or her) garbage that compliments your terrible pitchers. If you do, you might be convinced you can part with Johan, and have your fantasy season ruined.

Now on the other side of things, consider complimenting other people's players. Remember, you are never praising the abilities of players that you want to have on your team, but players you do not want to get. This can allow you to pay less for players, as the other manager no long feels he needs sed players as much.

Even if you are not planning on acquiring a player on someone's team, still praise players you do not like. . . . you'd be surprised what people remember down the road and how if affects their opinions. (especially if you are in first, which hopefully you are)

Fantasy baseball is not a fair man's game, acting deceitful can help you get an edge on the opposition --- most likely a small edge, but an edge nonetheless.

Cheers!

Paul

Free Agent Frenzy

2007-11-10T16:22:00.000-05:00

Mlb.com has a very fun contest going on now called Free Agent Frenzy. I suggest everyone does this because well you have nothing to lose, and if you happen to win you get opening day tickets. You have only until 5:00 today (eastern time) to enter so I'd hurry up. You can enter here: http://www.mlb.com/mlb/fantasy/free_agent/y2007/index.jsp

I have yet to find out how to get tables up on this article, so they best i can do it publish the table on the Internet and give you the link to it, which is:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pWUiZnbD3ye0v-k7PKKP1MA

Cheers!

Paul

A Lucky "Luck Stat"?

2007-11-09T19:13:00.000-05:00

As promised I'm doing the follow-up to the BABIP article. In that previous article (http://baseballmachine.blogspot.com/2007/11/look-at-luck-babip.html) I explained that if someone's BABIP is above .300, then you can expect a regression in their stats, and vice versa. However today I am here to tell you that it is not that simple. Some players deserve to have higher BABIP's. How is that possible you ask? Well it all goes back to when you were wee-old and your dad was yelling at you to try hit a Line Drive.

Think about it, line drives fall for hits more than any other "type of hit". I'll give you the exact percentages in a second. Remember that BABIP in essence is the percentage of balls in play that fall for hits. So if you hit more line drives than Joe-Schmo, your BABIP should be higher than his.

Line Drives fall for a hit 75% of the time.
Ground balls roll for a hit 24% of the time.
Outfield fly balls fall for a hit 9% of the time.
Infield fly balls fall for a hit .29% of the time.

So a player who only hits line drives would have a BABIP of .750, and I think you can figure out the rest. A player who hits more line drives gets a stronger pull towards that .750 mark.

Let's look at some of the LD% leaders from 2007 and see what their BABIP's were:

LD% BABIP
1) Michael Young: 27.2 .366
2) Chone Figgins: 26.4 .391
3) Placido Polanco: 23.9 .346

Obviously these three players BABIP's were above the league average, and they deserved to be. Chone Figgins higher .391 BABIP can be attributed to his speed, which allows him to beat out a few more ground balls than the average major leaguer.

Similarly let's take a look at those who couldn't hit a line drive if the fate of the universe depended on it:

LD% BABIP
1) Gary Matthews Jr.: 12.9% .279
2) Torii Hunter: 14.0 .303
3) Nick Punto: 14.6 .255

Well Torii Hunter is ruining my argument here, but we can let him slide as a phenomenon. Matthews Jr. and Punto both display BABIP's well below the league average, and deservedly so.

You now know all there is to know about BABIP. Use it when evaluating players, see whose in for a big regression, or a big "gression". All up-to-date LD%, GB%, and BABIP numbers are available at the Hardball Times. I'd also like to acknowledge them for providing the statistics used in this article.

Please visit back soon, and feel free to comment.

Cheers!

Paul

Live and Die By the Deal

2007-11-08T14:51:00.000-05:00

Expert Leagues are boring, mainly because no exciting deals happen. Now if you are like most of us, your fantasy leagues feature exciting blockbuster deals where teams trade half their rosters as often as Woody Paige makes absolutely no sense on Around The Horn.

That is why in most fantasy leagues, trading is much more important. Experts have their stuck up opinions, which remain true to them from draft day, through the end of the season. Experts live and die by the draft.

As common folk, we are more irrational beings, our opinions constantly changing. You can be so high on Mark Teixeira on draft day, pick him in the second round, but then two weeks into the season, willing to trade him for let's say Paul Konerko.

That is why trading is so important in (our) fantasy leagues. It is plausible to draft the worst team and still come out victorious - if you follow certain trading rules:

1) Do not trade for the sake of trading - Every deal you make, should have a purpose; whether you wished to bolster you Sp's, or add that 50 steals guy, do not just trade for the sake of change. Even if you are in last, do not make deals just to bring in some fresh faces.

2) Think over each trade thoroughly - Hopefully you did your homework before draft day, and are reasonably satisfied with your team. This should allow you to be very selective in the types of deals you do. When you finally come to the point of deciding between ultimately accepting or rejecting a trade, you should allow yourself at least two nights to think the trade over. Consult every known rankings/projections on the Internet, even ones you do not necessarily like, just to get the most opinions. After all of that, make your final decision. If the person you are dealing with is not a patient as you, and even threatens to cancel the trade if you wait that long, simply say, "Okay, you can cancel it then." Most likely this was a false threat, and the person will then allot you as much time as you need. Remember, you are not desperate since you are reasonably satisfied with your team, no deal is so important to you. Of course, there is the exception, that you person your dealing with is a complete moron/idiot/imbecile, and offers you a ridiculous trade you just know to accept. One last note, make sure no players you are receiving or dealing recently got injured without the other party aware.

3) Do not Deal to Deal - What I mean by that is this: do not complete a trade, simply to have to later trade one of the players you are receiving. Of course, if you already set up and agree to that second deal, then you can do the first. In that situation, make sure to analyze total players given up vs. total players received, not each deal individually.

So for example, Team A (you) wants to trade Posada for Brian McCann. Team B says, "I won't give you McCann, but I also have Russell Martin, who I know Team C really likes. . .I know you can get a lot out of Team C for Martin." You then do either two things. Either you set up a trade with Team C, in which you do give them Martin and get back enough, or you say to Team B, "Either McCann or no deal." Do not accept Posada for Martin before finalizing a deal with Team C. That's a good way to get ripped off.

4) Avoid uneven deals - By this I mean do not make 2 for 1 deals, try to stay 1 for 1, 2 for 2, etc. Especially avoid uneven deals if you are the side receiving the two players. Since you are getting the same production from 2 players you are used to from 1, your team is now more inefficient. Of course there are exceptions, like if you have major depth issues. In 2 for 1 deals, however, being on the "1 side" can be very beneficial. Consider it a 2 for 2 deal, since you can usually add a player after. This works great in shallow leagues where there is an abundance of talent in the free agent pool. Trade two or even three decent players for one super star, and then get some high-risk-high-reward guys that are available.

5) Never come across as desperate - In effect, you are "selling" your product, or players, to the other team. Make them seem as hard to get, as this will increase their value, and eventually increase what you can get in return for them. When talking about your players try to highlight their strengths, while avoiding their weaknesses.

Now let's say you are dealing with another team, and at one point in the negotiations an offer comes floating around that seems appealing to you at first glance. Do not stop there! Tell the other player that deal is just alright, and try to get whatever more you can out of them. Now if after lets say twenty minutes or so, the other player refuses to give in, and you still like the original deal, accept it. Make sure to realize that the other player did well themselves, as they did not act desperate and throw more at you.

Those are just some basic trading tips, the most important thing is actually knowing a player's worth, which is where stats come in. But still, being a successful dealer is not all knowing stats, you must also know how to become a businessman and make the best deal.

Cheers!

Paul

Superbowl? - Or 16-0

2007-11-07T17:45:00.001-05:00

I'd like to start off by saying, that this is the only football related post you will see on the Baseball Aspect for a while. Anyway, this post is about the New England Patriots, currently 9-0, who face the dilemma of going for 16-0, over saving their players for the Superbowl.

So far this season the Patriots head coach, Bill Belichick, has been keeping his starters late in games, even ones they are winning by more than 30 points. (which is often) So it seems, Belichick is willing to risk injury to "run up the score".

Popular opinion is that Belichick should bench Brady, Moss, and Maroney when such beat downs occur because winning the Superbowl is more important than going 16-0 --- something only the '72 Dolphins have done.

Well what do I have to say in all of this? Simply, going 16-0 may be more important than wining the Superbowl. Does anyone remember who won the 1987 Superbowl? No. But people know the '72 Dolphins for going 16-0.

So I feel Belichick should be handling this differently than how he is now, and how most people think he should be. First of all, if the Patriots ever find themselves winning substantially, by all means bench Brady. Risking injury, is not worth in games your guaranteed to get the W in. However, if the Patriots are ever in a close game, do not bench Brady to save him for the Superbowl, keep him in to prevent getting a loss.

There is a Superbowl champion every year, but in 40 years of NFL seasons only 1 team has gone undefeated. When you also factor in that the Patriots recently won 3 Superbowls in a span of 4 years (2002, -04, -05), you have to wonder if one more Superbowl is more important than "tying" an NFL record.

Technically, the Patriots would not even be tying an NFL record, since in 1972 they only played 14 regular season games - meaning the Dolphins only went 14-0. If the Patriots remain perfect throughout the entire season, they would finish 16-0. So it's definitely worth it for the Patriots to go for it.

Recently, the coach of the '72 Dolphins, Don Shula, has said that if the Pats go 16-0, an asterisk should be placed next to that record. (Barry Bonds-esque?) This is because earlier this season, Belichick was caught illegally filming the other team's sideline.

There has been much speculation as to how the Patriots could have used this. Many feel he couldn't utilize this quickly enough to help him in a game, but rather for future use. I feel he definitely could have seen the coordinators signs, and signalled to Tom Brady the type of play before the snap. The NFL just wanted this issue to go away so they fined Belichick and the Pats, and confiscated all the tapes.

Now, in Barry Bonds' case, technically it has never been proven he has taken steroids. Trust me, I'm no believer that he never took steroids, but I believe that its not a bad as people think, considering that this era was riddled with people using performance enhancers. So we want to place an asterisk next to a player's record, in a case where he has never been proven guilty, and was doing something that many other players of his time were doing? Meanwhile Belichick has been proven guilty, and as far as we know, is the only man to commit this illegality? That doesn't sound fair to me.

Baseball has a double-standard when it comes to performance enhancers. Plenty of football players, including such stars as Shawne Merriman, have been caught cheating, yet their reputation has not been tarnished (recently was in a popular Nike commercial). Whereas if any significant baseball players gets caught, they are viewed as despicable in the public eye.

I say, if Barry gets a asterisk, Belichick must. Shula was 100% correct in his statement, and the "Spygate Scandal" has been blown under the radar too quickly.

Cheers!

Paul

A Look At Luck: BABIP

2007-11-06T20:54:00.000-05:00

Since the beginning of baseball, people have been trying to quantify a player's contributions to wining games. Traditional stats were batting average, runs, rbi's, and home runs. Today, more in depth statistics are being created, those mostly fall under the umbrella of sabermetric stats.

I have found, that there are two basic ways to categorize all hitting stats - both traditional and sabermetric. There are stats that attempt to quantify a players performance, simple ones are runs and rbi's. And then there are stats which try to determine if a player deserves their performance stats, which I call "luck stats." BABIP is an example of a luck stat.

So there are performance and luck stats. When comparing two players, the most basic way to compare them is by their performance stats, who has more runs, home runs, runs batted in - very basic stuff.

But here at the Baseball Aspect, we are more complex. We know that sometimes a players performance stats do not tell the whole story, so we must look deeper, into their luck stats. And today we will look deeper into one luck stat, BABIP.

BABIP stands for batting average on balls in play. It is the average of balls hit in play that fall for hits. The formula I use for it is (H-HR)/(AB-K-HR+SF). The SF stands for sacrifice flies.

This is a very basic measurement, but who said there's anything wrong with simple? The league average for BABIP is .300, so if a player's BABIP is .410, you can expect a regression in his performance stats.

This elevates your knowledge over someone who only pays attention to performance stats. So, for example:

Player A - .330 batting average
Player B - . 280 batting average

A person only looking at performance stats would say, Player A is clearly superior to Player B, however if i were to include that Player A's BABIP was .425, and Player B's was .275, then most-likely Player B would see their batting average go up, and Player A's go down. Small reductions in a players' BABIP can dramatically influence a players batting average. In fact, if I adjusted both players' BABIP to the league average .300, Player B's batting average would surpass Player A's.

This a very basic example, but that is exactly how you would go about finding players who have gotten lucky so far, and those who are bound to get better. Once you increase the amount of balls in play that fall for hits, a players runs, rbi's, steals - all those fantasy stats we love - will go up.

So now there is no more guessing whether a player is just plain bad, or whether he's simply been getting unlucky. This is great for trading in fantasy, because you can trade overachievers for underachievers, and get great production from those underachievers the rest of the season.

Unfortunately, BABIP is not that simple. This may be mind boggling, but a player's BABIP can be lucky. Think about that. . .a "luck stat" can be lucky. I'm not gonna go into that today, but I will surely talk about that soon.

All up-to-date BABIP numbers can be found at, of course, The Hardball Times.

I advise my readers to apply this when they evaluate a player. Apply what you learn!

Cheers!

Paul

Free Agency Strategy

2007-11-04T21:24:00.000-05:00

Most people think of free agency as a way for high-powered teams to over-spend on mediocre players. Yes, it is that, but it also can be very beneficial, even to smaller teams if they play the market right. Throughout the offseason I'll post a number of free agency rules, right now I'll just start with my first. It is very simple; it follows the basic law of supply and demand.

It is, buy players from positions that are deep that particular year. If there are several good 3rd basemen available one year, a team most-likely will get a better deal pursuing one of them, rather than a pitcher in a thin market.

Which brings us to pitchers: THERE IS ALMOST ALWAYS A THIN FREE AGENT MARKET FOR PITCHERS. That is why you constantly see teams overpaying for free agnet pitchers, because there is never a deep class. Does Barry Zito, Jaret Wright, Jeff Suppan, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and many many more ring any bells?

Teams looking to spend wisely on the f/a market do not get pitchers that way. Drafting and raising is the only way to go.

As for hitters that is another story. In a deep class, there can be an abundance of steals. Frank Thomas and Aaron Rowand should set some good examples.

Obvioulsy there are always some bad deals made, although much less than with pitching.

So advice for your favorite teams, buy when the supply is high, and the demand is low.

Cheers!

Paul

Best (and Worst) of 2007 Part II

2007-11-03T20:33:00.000-04:00

Finally! Part II's awaited arrival has come. This part will include the pitchers of 2007, and their performance will be based on win shares. I'd like to note that no rookies were included, because well, they have no other season to base 2007 off of. All complete 2007 win share totals were provided by The Hardball Times. Their site is great, i recommend you check it out if you are a baseball fan. Anyway, onto the awards, starting with those players who brought you a year of glory and bragging rights:

1) Dan Haren: +4 win shares: Had a large role to fill with the departure of Zito, and more than filled it. This prospect, most notably known for being traded for Mark Mulder, improved greatly on his promising 2006 campaign, pitching a solid 223 innings with a microscopic 3.07 era. He was virtually unhittable in the beginning of the season, and became more human as the season went on, but still finished with great numbers. He enters the 2008 season considered an elite pitcher in the league.

2) Ian Snell: +6 win shares - Considered a fantasy impact player at the beginning of the season simply because of his impressive k rate, Snell proved he can be valuable as an all-around pitcher. He finished 2007 with a 3.76 era, and of course his impressive 177 strikeouts. Also a guy who started the season strong, and kind of tapered off at the end. Still, he is now considered a strong pitcher in the MLB.

3) Rick Hill: +8 win shares - His win shares difference is inflated a little because he pitched just under 100 more innings this year than in 2006, but a stark improvement is still evident. He lowered his era under the 4.00 plateau for the first time by posting an era of 3.92. That number is inflated a little because of his most-deadly pitch, his curveball. Although it can correlate into tons of outs and strikeouts, a small mistake of leaving it up can lead to a homerun very easily, evidenced by his high 27 homeruns given up. Besides that, he gets a lot of batters out, and has a bright future ahead of him.

4) Erik Bedard: +3 win shares - Do not be fooled by the small win shares difference, as it is not the result of pitching, but rather that he sat out the last month of the season. Bedard was arguably the best pitcher in the mlb this year. After posting a decent 3.76 era in 2006, Bedard blasted his way into the pitching elite with a 3.16 era, and an incredible 221 k's. Expect another great season in 2008 from this Canadian.

5) Joe Blanton: +5 win shares - A former first round pick, had a great rookie year in 2005. he had a bad case of "sophomore slumpitis" in 2006, increasing his era an entire 1.29 points. Its amazing how quickly people forgot his rookie campaign, nobody ranked him anywhere. But in 2007 Blanton did bounce back, lowering his era back down to a respectable 3.95, although it was lower than that mark most of the year. Blanton is a very steady pitcher, and no one expects a 4th year slump from him.

Honorable mention: C.C. Sabathia, Tom Gorzelanny, Ted Lilly, Jeff Francis.

Now onto the players who did what pitchers are good at, disappointing you:

1) Jeremy Bonderman: -7 win shares - This 2001 first rounder looked bright coming into the season, lowering his era in each of his first 3 seasons. His first have was respectable, finishing with a 3.90 era, but it went downhill from there. He finished July with an era of 4.33, August at 4.72, and got rocked his last start, highering it to a season-high mark of 5.01.Just an utterly disappointing year, hopefully for the Tigers, he can bounce back in 2008.

2) Ervin Santana: -10 win shares - Wow. Ervin Santana was a solid pitcher, ending 2006 with a 4.28 era. Most people thought that number would, if anything, go down. Unfortunately for his wallet, it did not. In fact, it skyrocketed to 5.76. It got so bad for this Dominican native, that he had to be sent down to the minors. I'm not sure where he will be at in 2008, but I don't think his era can go up any higher.

3) Barry Zito: -8 win shares - This once laid-back, carefree, surfin, west-coast native quickly became considered overpaid, overrated, and money-hungry with his ridiculous 126 million dollar deal. His basic stats indicated a regression, most notably his high walk rate of 4.0 in 2007. With his velocity regressing, he got hit more, and the combination of walks, hits, and home runs equaled a 4.53 era. Unacceptable for the highest paid pitcher in the major leagues.

4) Cliff Lee: -9 win shares - A bounce-back candidate coming into 2007, did nothing except bounce himself out of the league, getting sent down to the minor mid-way through the season for his disappointing performances. The 6.29 era explains enough, could be a draft day steal if he can regroup int he offseason.

5) Jason Schmidt: -16 win shares - Schmidt was injured for most of the year, and normally I would not include him, but the combination of a 6.31 era in the 25 innings he did pitch, and his ridiculous free-agent contract he received, brought him upon this list of shame. Just an utter disappointment all year, showing that its best not to buy into pitchers, when there aren't that many.

Unhonorable mention: Tom Glavine, Chris Carpenter (inj), Daisuke Matsuzaka, Rich Harden (inj), Mike Mussina

That wraps it up for today. Please comment if you feel I left someone out (which is entirely possible). New articles will continue throughout the off-season, so look forward to that.

Cheers!

Paul

Where is Brian Cashman?

2007-10-31T18:04:00.000-04:00

Last time I checked, Brian Cashman is the gm of the New York Yankees. Not Georger, Hank, Al or any other Steinbrenner in the universe. So why have the Steinbrenners made all of the decisions so far this offseason, Torre and A-Rod? Are the Yankees' owners deciding on all the big issues, and letting Cashman decide on the "petty" ones? Should Cashman be okay with that?

There are some owners in sports who act as their team's general managers. Cowboy's Jerry Jones is the first to come to my mind. I feel either of the following two things need to happen. Either the Steinbrenners say, "we want to take over as gm of our team" or Cashman should resign. What gm would be happy not making the decision.

He might just be saving himself, because I do not believe he is guaranteed to get hired again. He is so used to having unlimited money to spend, that he might struggle if he gets hired by a team like the Cardinals or Orioles.

My question is ,why hasn't Cashman spoken a word about the Yankees, he is the gm still, right?

A Different View on Joe Torre

2007-10-25T20:54:00.000-04:00

Well its been a while since my last post, but I have reason. Hope everyone is watching and enjoying the World Series, I feel it will be a struggle for both teams despite Boston's game 1 rout.

Everyone feels that the offer the Yankees gave Joe Torre was an insult because it decreased his salary. False. In 2007 Joe Torre made $7.5 million last year as the Yankee skipper. Just to give you some perspective as to how ridiculous this contract was, the next highest salary for a manger was Lou Pinella's $3.5 million from the Cubbies, and the average MLB manager's salary was (I excluded Torre's as an outlier) $1.22 million. Wow. So Torre is complaining about a $5 million deal with incentives anyone could pickup, i.e. $1 million for making the playoffs.

So Torre is making eons more than any other manager, yet still is unhappy. His reasoning is that the decrease in salary is a sign of disrespect to him. Well, the Yankees expect to win a World Series (and should with that payroll) and he's on a good 7 year drought, so he obviously isn't doing the best job. So why shouldn't he accept a small pay cut while still being the league's top paid manager?

If a player has a career year, signs a lucrative deal, and does horrible over that contract, then that player will probably take a pay cut when his next contract negotiations begin. So why is this different for Joe Torre. Has he really done that well as the Yankees' manager? Is there no one else capable of "handling the media" as well as Torre supposedly did? I'm saying there is someone else, and the Yankee's made a smart business decision by not throwing out millions of dollars to Joe.

Almost no one shares my point of view on this, and I cannot understand why the Yankees $5 million+ contract was seen as "disrespectful". It does not make any sense to me. Feel free to comment how you think about the situation now.

Best (And Worst) of 2007 Part I

2007-10-01T17:55:00.000-04:00

Well, what a season it has been. Some players did really great, and we expected them to do so. Others, did horrible, and we expected them to do that also. However, today I'd like to focus on players who we expected to do good, but performed bad, and vice versa. I'll break it down my hitting and pitching, good and bad. I'm going to go by winshares, so if you don't know how that works I suggest you read this (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/2004-win-shares-have-arrived/) Remember, this isn't who performed the best, its who exceeded their expectations the most. This is Part I of this compilation with only hitters. Soon I'll be posting Part II with the pitchers and any players I feel left out. Anyway, on we go, starting off with the best hitters:

1) Prince Fielder: +9 win shares. He was a touted prospect, Had decent last year. I expected good things from him this year, but 50+ home runs definitely exceeded our expectations. He carried his team, and is now a MVP caliber player. he's justifying his first round selection back in 2002.

2) Magglio Ordonez: +14 win shares. Amidst the Tigers potent offense there was one standout player this year, Magglio. He was on pace to break the doubles record for most of the year, and sustained an unsustainable batting average (for him) of .360. His avoidance of the injury bug was key to this, since we all knew he was an offensive weapon, but not this sharp.

3) Carlos Pena: +27 wins shares. Wow, in 2004 this guy did hit 27 home runs, but where was he the last 3 years? His first round talent finally showed up again, and showed up big time. This year he blasted an amazing 47 homers in just under 500 ab's. Question for next year, is he for real?

Honorable mention: Eric Byrnes, Jorge Posada, Curtis Granderson, Brandon Phillips, and Hanley Ramirez

Onto the bad list. Those hitters who killed your fantasy teams and dreams.

1) Jason Bay: -10 win shares. A huge disappointment this year for the Pirates, the only thing going for them. Was an around .300 hitter and for 3 years, and out of nowhere his b.a. drops below .250. His OPS dropped a whopping .182 points. There were signs of regressions this year, but if anyone predicted this much of a drop, I'd like to meet them and kiss their ring or shoe or something.

2) Andrew Jones: - 10 win shares. Andrew's disappointing year came at the worst time, in a contract year. He's losing tons of money because of this. But here we are interested in the stats the Braves lineup are missing. He hit 26 homers this year after averaging 46 over the last two seasons. He's never been good at hitting for average about a .260 hitter, but .222 this year! His OPS dropped exactly .170 points, and has had a season we'd all like to forget. Although, I'm not so sure he will bounce fully back.

3) Travis Hafner: -10 win shares. I was the fortunate owner of him in my most prestigious baseball league this year, and that did not work well. 18 less home runs, a 30 point drop in batting average, and an incredible 260 drop in OPS, mostly due to slugging. Hafner was and still is in the middle of his prime, and this season was not expected by anyone, not one person. Every year there are a couple of disappointments like this, and there is nothing you can do about it, just hope it's not you. Sometimes a 162-game season can't cure the worst of droughts.

Unhonorable mention: Vernon Wells, Manny Ramirez, Joe Mauer, Troy Glaus, and Bill Hall.

That's it! Check back soon for the pitchers chance at glory/shame. Leave comments or e-mail me at cowchow4you@gmail.com I ask that you watch and enjoy the postseason, and feel free to give in your two cents.

Cheers!

Paul

Final Day

2007-09-29T22:31:00.000-04:00

What an exciting season this has been. Plenty of ups and downs, and we find some playoff positions are coming down the last game. A 162 game long season coming down to one, now that's intense. Lets go through some scenarios for you.

Padres - They win, there in. Its that simple.

Phillies/Mets - are both in same situation. If one of them wins, the other loses, then the team that wins will take the east. There still is option of both wining and the Padres losing, which could have both of them going to October.

Rockies - They need a win and a Padre loss. That would give them a tie for the wildcard, resulting in a one-game playoff between the two teams. I really hope the Rockies get in, Matt Holliday, Troy Tulowitzki, Todd Helton, Garret Atkins (look how far he's come), and Brad Hawpe are amazing hitters. If they don't get in this year, I'd be wary of them in the next. They have a real solid core, in hitting at least.

That's all for today, check back soon for more insight.

Cheers!

Paul

Welcome!!!

2007-09-21T16:55:00.000-04:00

This is my first post so I'd like to give a basic overview of what this blog will be all about.

The focus of this blog will be baseball, from front offices, to players, to fantasy. In the off-season (now) I might touch on basketball, and maybe occasionally football, although overall football will not be tolerated here.
My goal right now is to provide some relief for those of us who despise the mind-controlling, reason-sucking vacuum that is football.

Personally I am an A's fan, and might talk about the Athletics more than most, but whenever anything from around the league catches my attention, you'll see it here.

Anyway I should be posting a few times a week with baseball insight, so check back soon for my first real article.

Cheers!

Paul